Local community and business leaders agree the area’s economy is on the mend but offer words of caution about the staying power of the current recovery.

The Greater Conejo Valley Chamber of Commerce hosted its 2012 Regional Economic Forecast Feb. 15 at the Hyatt Westlake Plaza with a speaker panel that included local mayors and real estate and economy experts.

“We’re definitely in a recovery. Let’s hope we stay in one,” said Bill Watkins, director of California Lutheran University’s Center for Economic Research and Forecasting.

Watkins said the jobless rate is falling because more disillusioned workers are leaving the workforce, and, while “Wall Street has recovered, Main Street hasn’t.”

“The system itself is still not healthy,” he said.

Jacqui Irwin, Thousand Oaks mayor, said her city’s unemployment rate dropped from 8.3 percent in 2010 to 7.3 percent currently.

California’s woes could be eased by a boost in legal immigration, which would improve the real estate markets, Watkins said. But homeowner qualifying still remains difficult.

Rick Lemmo, senior vice president of community relations for Caruso Affiliated, said the local retail markets need to get used to what he calls the “new normal.”

When comparing 2011 to 2010, “It looks great,” Lemmo said.

In the Conejo Valley, he predicted a 10 percent increase in retail profitability for the coming year. Ironically, moderately priced restaurants and retail establishments in the area are “hurting really bad,” while the purveyors of luxury goods and services are doing well.

He said last year’s retail sales were up 6 percent across all categories.

“ We’re trying to plan the future of (Thousand Oaks Boulevard) and getting great cooperation from the city,” Lemmo said.

Rick Principe, chief executive for Westcord Commercial Real Estate Services, said the boulevard’s new specific plan has been a boost for business.

In Westlake Village, a Target store is being sought as part of a 243,000-square-foot Dan Selleck retail development near Costco, Mayor Sue McSweeney said. It is the city’s last undeveloped piece of commercial property.

The office market remains lagging. Agoura Hills Mayor John Edelston said his city’s office vacancy rate is a high 35 percent, whereas retail is only 17 percent.

But for the most part, bank lending has loosened, investor liquidity is high and commercial real estate vacancy rates are stabilizing.

“The banks are back in the market,” said Principe, who expects the local recovery will be led by new tenants from the medical field.

The local mayors warned about the loss of income from redevelopment funds they once enjoyed.

Thousand Oaks will lose about $20 million in redevelopment monies, including $4.5 million for low-incoming housing, Irwin said.

One of the biggest losers in the redevelopment meltdown is Las Virgenes Unified School District, Edelston said.

Chris Kimball, president of CLU, addressed the rising cost of higher education, both to the student and to the institution.

“The U.S. used to lead the world in the percent of people with a college degree. We are now 13th or 14th,” Kimball said.